Risk maps for Climate Proof Living Environment

The tool is designed in the frame of the project contributing to reducing the exposure to hazards and promoting emergency preparedness in the built areas around the Gulf of Finland. Many effects that are expected to aggravate under climate change are seen as potential threats for the safety and health of the population already now (storm surges, heat islands, droughts, erosion/land slides). The method helps in finding a solution or common opinion for issues with many variables, or issues for which objective solutions cannot be found. Nowadays, the Delphi method is used in many kinds of risk analyses that combine social, economic and environmental viewpoints.

The outcome of the risk matrix is a risk classification for land use types and all types of hazard. Single hazard maps combined with the land use maps produced risk maps for each hazard type. The risk classification was used in assessing the areas vulnerable to certain hazard in corresponding region. Since this kind of evaluation is difficult to perform objectively by just one person, the Delphi method helps in adding objectivity into the classification. Different regions might also have different views on what functions and land use types are the most important for the local community.

In addition to single hazard risk maps integrated risk maps are produced. In an integrated map, all the single risk maps are combined so that the highest hazard class present at each location is shown.

The Delphi method can be described as a supporting tool in group work and communicating and solving complex issues having many sides. The Delphi method was developed in the mid 1900's to give predictions on issues with uncertainties.